One is listed as an aborted play. The playoff odds stuff on FO converts DVOA advantage to a winning percentage, so that could be used instead. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five I just think we've seen enough of Stafford at this point to cement the fact that he's not really more than a tier 3 quarterback. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Miamis offense are top 10 in points per game, top five in yards per game and the teams defense is averaging four sacks over the last three weeks, which is the third most in the NFL. With a record of 8-4 and wins in five of the last six weeks, even the advanced statistics are favoring the Dolphins. 2021 NFC West (7.5) They did not want Jalen Hurts three- or five-step dropping from shotgun without play-action. Philadelphia outgained the Commanders on a per play basis, 5.91 to 4.34. Regardless, if the bills recover that fumble it's a safety and the Vikings still have a very reasonable chance of winning that game. Hard to define what the Y should be. Film Room and Draft Expert A month ago, bad qbs looked like 44 year old Tom Brady when they played the Vikings. The technique is to keep your hands inside and grab the shoulder pads without ripping jersey or stopping momentum when they get around you. You may be tempted to disregard it as an outlier, but a better approach would be to use it to assign better values to extraordinary plays that better align with their impact on the game.". ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). 15 special teams (down from No. OK, what about the Eagles? I am not sure what everyone's opinion on Goff is, but I feel more confident that he's very much in that volatile tier 3 QB mix as opposed to being in the mitch Trubisky camp of quarterbacks. Not that either team will accomplish much this year, but I find it humorous that Goff has a +17% passing DVOA compared to Stafford's -9.6% (to be fair, Goff has a very good O-line, and Stafford's is trash), and the Rams' pick they traded away to the Lions has a decent shot of being higher than the Lions' own pick. In reply to You guys don't get to make the rules by BigRichie. Yea, I agree with this. third-strongest "surprise win" since 2010, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAy-mW6Kg9E, Another way to think about strong divisions, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). I'd be curious how we would view Jared Goff if they had won that super bowl with him doing as little as he did on offense. Revised as of 12/07/22, through Week 13. The exception will be snap counts, which will still be available to everyone Monday but now will be updated earlier. Why does DVOA favor the Bills' performance by so much? https://www.footballoutsiders.com/subscribe, In reply to Absolutely! 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Skewing models to predict once-in-a-decade events inherently results in them being less accurate at predicting everyday events. When you adjust each of their seasons for the quality of their OL play Goff and Stafford have incredibly similar production. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five The Cowboys are also quietly getting outstanding play from their special teams. These numbers are adjusted based on the opposing offenses and include defensive pass interference. And even beating the Titans this year too. In reply to Welcome to the club buddy by Kaepernicus, Offensive linemen were using their hands back in the 60s. But it was very close, and that's before we get into things we don't account for in DVOA like completely missed facemask penalties. They're still calculated (no risky throws on 2nd and 1, for example), but he's not hoping for YAC and settling for a punt by throwing short on 3rd and long as often as in years past. If there are any TCU fans still reading that haven't yet thrown their device across the room in disgust at these numbers and the obvious disrespect, I can certainly understand the perspective that these ratings and projections are meaningless in the context of producing a Big 12 champion.The Horned Frogs are undefeated (8-0 overall, 7-0 Historical Lookups. The top two teams in DVOA both lost this weekend, by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. In reply to You know what, you've by nosoop4u, In reply to Your onus is unremarkable. (read Instant Replay; John Madden also remarked on that while having a conversation with Vince Lombardi). Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? I thought the Bears game was a perfect microcosm of the Goff experience. In reply to In other words, see comment by LionInAZ. With the Ravens, it's worries about the offense. The fumble was worth -501.8% DVOA for the Bills' offense. Carroll was already named one of two All-Decade Coaches for the 2010s by the Pro Football Hall of Fame, having turned around a middling Seahawks franchise into one of the top 2 or 3 most successful teams since 2010. In reply to But how much of that strong by Aaron Brooks G. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. Obviously not enough if their overall DVOA is +41.7% for the game. more? Another area of superiority seems to be whatever is allowing Cousins to take some more risks. Aaron Schatz. They are catching a bit of the 2021 Patriots analytical alchemy and may be overrated. And he was very good in the playoffs too. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. If they revert to that, they could still end up losing 8 games. in. 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. The other worrying trend is that Allen isnt taking care of the football - 10 INTs (leads the league) plus 8 fumbles. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA by. In reply to "This game tests the limits by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. The run defense is suspect, but if you are going to be weak at something, you'd take run defense every time. They rank 26th in DVOA allowed on running back targets while surrendering a league-high 8.6 running back targets per game. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Value drive rate (DVD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that conclude with a drive end value greater than the drive start value based on field position. With the seven-team playoff field in each conference, it is now possible for an entire division to make the playoffs in the same year. Before Seattle he did the same thing at USC, creating one of the most dominant runs in college football history. The Rams, KOC's previous team, by Adjusted Games Lost were 4th in 2018, 10th in 2019, 2nd in 2020 and 5th in 2021. Punting , kickoff, and coverage all look improved.my eye test ? Minnesota recovered all four fumbles in this game. The Patriots allowed a 40.5% defensive rushing DVOA against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, led by Lamar Jackson's 107 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. NFL Week 10 - The Buffalo Bills may have fallen to the Minnesota Vikings in the most exciting game of the year, but we still think they are the best team in the NFL. Rk Team Rec FBS DFEI DDE Rk DTD Rk DVD Rk DFD Rk DBD Rk DTO Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.93 1.42 1 .062 1 .169 1 .562 2 .169 15 .131 33 2 Do the Vikings have a big number of big plays? Though he finished in the top 10 running backs with over 3,800 yards from scrimmage in those three years, the Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs' fifth-year option in April.. And so Jacobs, in the midst of an All-Pro-caliber season, is about to hit the free-agent market. In reply to I am kind of glad that it by theslothook. That's all the offense's fault; it's not a forced fumble. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. Not sure how interesting that would be and it's difficult to deal with the cluster at 0. Flacco was far inferior. All three players are listed as questionable for this Sunday's divisional game against the Cowboys, but if one or any of them are out, the Eagles may roll with a conservative game plan once again. WebDVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA has them 21st. NCAA Week 12 November 23, 3:25 pm ET The highest correlated factor to explaining the outcome of any particular game is points scored: it has a 100% backwards-looking explanatory power. That would suggest the two teams were much more even than the DVOA output suggests. Not everyone gets an 07 style vengeance tour over the league. by Aaron Brooks G. (The Vikings are only responsible for the fumble in that they pinned the Bills on the goal line but we've already given the Vikings' offense credit for that by measuring the success of their previous drive.). It's so disappointing the way Buffalo has likely blown HFA two years in a row now after beating KC in KC both years. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars are the No. The 2 last games of 2021 which didn't mean anything were multi score games. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 The Georgia Bulldogs aren't quite as good on defense as they were last year, the Stetson Bennett and company have improved on offense, making them the favorites in the College Football Playoff. What is that, like five Os or two Us? NFL Week 11 - The statistical stars of Week 11 were a pair of running backs who didn't do a ton of runningat least, not as running is defined in the NFL play-by-play.But Tony Pollard and Samaje Perine were so deadly as receiving threats that they carried their teams to victory anyway. The Vikings are the first team to ever have an 8-1 record with a negative DVOA. The Vikings have been doing a lot of failing on early downs, then throwing for 12 yards on 3rd and 8. OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. Theres a lot more than two ways to think about it. Spot on. Click here for the full table. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. While you're at it, you can get a seven-day trial of FO+ and check out the FO+ features like a deeper DVOA database, weekly fantasy projections, fantasy football research tools, Derrik Klassen's All-32 game preview column, and picks against the spread (now including projected totals for over/unders). Web2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. Is DVOA giving less value to Minnesota's explosive plays? The Commanders had only one drive of three plays. The main problem, though, is that these extraordinary plays rarely repeat. While Hurts' inconsistencies as a true dropback passer play some part in that, the depleted offensive line was the biggest issue on Sunday. But Bisaccias units performed better overall than his predecessor DeCamillis's did. I guess I can't quantify what makes a boom or bust team. The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. But if you use any kind of play-by-play breakdown instead of just total points scored and allowed, this team is not a top-10 team right now. In reply to The way to do a weighted average by rmjohnston. Offense All EPA/Success Rate stats are via rbsdm.com Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming. What about the NFC East? Maybe I am just projecting this, but they feel more fragile than a team this strong should. That makes this the third-strongest "surprise win" since 2010, ahead of only a Titans-Jaguars game from 2013 and the Miami won over Baltimore back in Week 2 of this season. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Dolphins vs. Chargers: Miami elevates wide receiver Freddie Swain from the practice squad, Miami Dolphins elevate wide receiver Freddie Swain for Sunday Nights Matchup vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, sluggish performance against the San Francisco 49ers, Dolphins vs. Chargers: How to watch, game time, streaming, injury report and more, Dolphins vs. Chargers Week 14 full game coverage: Preview, in-game, and recaps, Dolphins vs Chargers Preview & Prediction: Week 14, 2023 NFL Pro Bowl: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill Top-5 Vote-Getters early on. dvoa does favor consistent gains over big plays. Micah has to learn how to deal with it before he takes the next leap because the NFL is not going to let monster pass rushers destroy fantasy football leagues around the country. Rk Team Rec FBS F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk FEI Rk SP+ Rk; 1: Georgia: 13-0: 12-0: 2.67: 1.69: 7: 2.40: 1: 1.51: 1: 36.7 Just because these two weren't damaging doesn't predict that the next two won't be. The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. Editor-in-Chief I mean, not as good asJohn Fassel has been doing. 11 last week), the No. With a new offense powered by new arrivals, both players and staff, USC has left itself as the last Pac-12 team in Playoff contention. I can't say I'm thrilled, but they put so much of the offense in his hands that you almost have to expect this. In other words, see comment 80 about the monstrous negative value of the Bills fumble in their own end zone. Brad Johnson was better than you remember. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. In reply to I believe that any gain over by Will Allen. I'm certainly not going to complain about the rating & ranking. South Bend, IN. DVOA is per-play. Etc. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA by. To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: is clearly ranked because . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAy-mW6Kg9EHere's the Bear's game. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 11 last week), the No. , 102 comments, Last at 18 Nov 2022, 1:28pm. Here are the best divisions by DVOA ranks since 2002: 1. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. This means they could win it all (regardless of whether or not they win the division and get the bye), or they could be one and done (again, regardless of whether they win the division or get the bye). So, maybe they won't? The hand-waiving about fumble luck is one of my biggest points. They remind me a lot of the Manning/Dungy Colts - an outstanding pass offense that gets ahead quickly, and a defense built around defending the pass to protect those leads. This year the DBs have been getting key, 4th quarter / endzone interceptions. DAVE always bummed me out a bit because there wasn't a companion stat called HAL. They are a very weird team. Another big gap comes on special teams. If you want to see data from the current season on Monday, including all of Sunday's games, you will need to be an FO+ subscriber. 1993 AFC West (8.8) The Cowboys remained in second place in defensive DVOA, with the New England Patriots and Bills switching places in first and They had 202 yards and 10 points for the rest of the game which is a borderline average outing for teams playing in Buffalo so far this season. Defensive drive efficiency (DDE) is scoring value gained or lost per opponent offensive drive. Maybe something like "over X%(50?) They also have 10 more red zone entries compared to their opponents, In reply to so Buffalo defence gets by jmaron. In reply to I don't understand the idea by Noahrk. The Cowboys only climbed from 13th to 12th place in offensive DVOA. 8? If there are any TCU fans still reading that haven't yet thrown their device across the room in disgust at these numbers and the obvious disrespect, I can certainly understand the perspective that these ratings and projections are meaningless in the context of producing a Big 12 champion.The Horned Frogs are undefeated (8-0 overall, 7-0 WebFootball Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season. But -- here's the biggest difference between this game and the Bills-Vikings game -- the Commanders ran 81 plays compared to just 47 for the Eagles. Key Unit/Player: DAL Defensive Line, PHI Offensive Line. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars now have the No. They lead the NFL with a 28.6% pressure rate. What does DVOA do with a team like Buffalo, that can string together 9 amazing plays followed by 1 brain-melting error and do it multiple times a game? In reply to Also long gains are field by ChrisS. Genuinely curious as to why the Bills defensive DVOA was -15.0% in the game while giving up 6.18 yards per play. NFL playoff picture and clinching scenarios Week 14 - Through TNF results. Mike recently wrapped up a six-year run as the NFL Lead Columnist for Bleacher Report; his popular Monday Morning Digest feature will presumably be replaced by But they all are competition for the rest of the league. Opponent adjustments are now at full strength. But the Dallas Cowboys leapt into second place -- and first place in the NFC -- by hammering the Minnesota Vikings 40-3. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? 15 special teams (down from No. You may be tempted to disregard it as an outlier, but a better approach would be to use it to assign better values to extraordinary plays that better align with their impact on the game. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. So adding 1 to each to get weights of 1, 2, 3, and 4 makes some sense. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. Their variance, as I see it, comes in the fact they seem to be successful early and late in the 1st half, and in the 4th quarter. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming. But Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings has the Cardinals ranking only above the Houston Texans, making them the second-worst team in the league. On a sack it's pretty much 50/50. If you're interested in our game picks, you can find them on this page. The Patriots allowed a 40.5% defensive rushing DVOA against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, led by Lamar Jackson's 107 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. The TCU Horned Frogs had their best game of the year against Iowa State, and their resume includes nine wins against FEI top-50 opponents. I'm aware of that. 7 and moves Tampa Bay and San Francisco up. With a by Vincent Verhei. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars now have the No. That's a sizeable difference, and it seems to be entirely related to the value of Minnesota's punt returns. by Team; by Week According to former FO columnist Bill Barnwell, the WPA swing on that fumble was about 95%, which is the largest in the history of that metric. Chubb has the third highest DVOA in the NFL, and Hunt is sitting 12th. If I had to bet meaningful money on which guy to draft at age 22, it's not a close call. The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. Now, the best division since 2002 is the 2004 AFC East, where the average team had 19.8% DVOA. In reply to I'm pretty sure that's the by CVBoot. Take it as you will, but according to reporting from the Athletic the fumbled snap was actually caused in part by a shift from Harrison Phillips in response to their audible on the line. Football Outsiders ranks the Browns offensive line as a top-10 run blocking unit. The Dukes have a suffocating defense and a weak schedule, and they're playing this season with nothing to lose. In fact, their DVOA rating moved up this week. But the Dallas Cowboys leapt into second place -- and first place in the NFC -- by hammering the Minnesota Vikings 40-3. so Buffalo defence gets credit for the right guard stepping on the QBs foot which results in the QB fumbling trying to pitch the ball to the RB? I felt it during the 05 season with the Colts, where every week felt like either doomsday or relief. 7 and moves Tampa Bay and San Francisco up. by Team; by Week When you ask how much competition did the division winner have? you look at the other three teams. I added information to that table on how each of these teams did at the end of the season, but I honestly don't think you learn anything about the Vikings from that. In reply to My eyes only differ with by Will Allen. Brown, with only a few other plays sprinkled throughout to keep the defense honest. *snaps on gloves* Follow Email Archive . WebFootball Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. What even is a boom or bust team? Mustn't forget that pesky tennis elbow. 11 last week), the No. near the middle of the pack in DVOA and DYAR, both rushing and receiving. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2022/kenneth-walker-and-legacy-boom-or-bust-backs. FPI and EPA per play put them about 12th in the league. Aaron Schatz. In reply to Injury luck seems to at by owleabf. As a result of all that pressure, Cowboys opponents average an NFL-low 174.5 passing yards per game and just 5.6 yards per passing play, the third-lowest figure in the NFL. What kind of name is that anyway? The Bills had already moved back into the No. It seems like Vikings have played their best football in the 4 quarter. For the most part, it's hard to tell! Now bad qbs look like bad qbs; Heinecke would have ranked at the bottom in last week's quick reads, absent a ref blocking a Viking safety, gifting the Commies a 56 yard td. by Team; by Week The top two teams in DVOA both lost this weekend, and they lost despite both teams having a higher DVOA rating than their opponents. 22 last week), and the No. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. I believe that any gain over 40 yards starts to be discounted, because gains of 40+ yards are not predictive. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Historical Lookups. Also, the opposite of "boom-or-bust" would be "consistent," which would be defined by a low standard deviation. Indianapolis DAVE rating is higher because it is now once again based on a projection with Matt Ryan at quarterback. Had good protection, and thus had a very good game, but threw the most horrific red zone interception you'll ever see, and was fortunate to have it negated by penalty. If you provide infinite context, you can predict with near 100% certainty who will recover the fumble, completely removing "fumble luck". Isn't the first play more valuable precisely because it was from your own 20? near the middle of the pack in DVOA and DYAR, both rushing and receiving. After starting the year with a league-best 41.1% offensive DVOA, the Ravens only have played one game with an offensive DVOA above 20% and two games with a DVOA above 10%. Their 24.0% defensive rushing DVOA performance against the Chicago Bears saw the Patriots give up 82 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries by Justin Fields. I haven't seen a study that looks at backward passes, but fumbles after non-QB runs and forward passes have the roughly same probabilities, so I would use that number (40/60) as a guestimate. In reply to Stafford never had a bad by Will Allen. Pollard finishes as the best player at his position in I get the theory of expecting fumbles to balance out, but I wish there was a way to add context. 10 offense (up from No. I need to learn more about how ESPN's special teams methodology works, but Jalen Reagor is in the bottom half of the league in yards per return and has fumbled twice (and recovered both of those fumbles). Rk Team Rec FBS DFEI DDE Rk DTD Rk DVD Rk DFD Rk DBD Rk DTO Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.93 1.42 1 .062 1 .169 1 .562 2 .169 15 .131 33 2 ), DVOA also doesn't know the Vikings faced Bridgewater and not Tua (inflates their rating for the MIA game). Creator of DVOA andDYAR non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games. The best division prior to 2002 by average DVOA rating instead of rank is the 1992 NFC East at 14.3%. The stuff that happens to Bosa is a direct result of his power and acceleration. if a quarterback consistently fumbles in when he gets sacked (hello Tannehill), the average probability of a sack fumble resulting in a turnover is more interesting than whether the specific circumstances of a single sack made it extremely likely that the offense would recover. It depends on what you mean by a strong division. Indescribably bad. This game tests the limits and baseline values for a metric like DVOA. Now, there are two ways to do this. The first lesson you learn as a fan is you aren't the smartest guy in the room. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Get all the features and proprietary Football Outsiders ranks Miami at No. I can't remember whether it was DVOA or DYAR that caps plays at 40 yards, but either way: the Vikings have 5 passes of 40+ yards (t-11th) and 2 rushes of 40+ yards (t-9th). Absolutely! 26 defense, and the No, 11 special teams unit. Dont let Sundays sluggish performance against the San Francisco 49ers distract you from the fact that the Miami Dolphins are one of the leagues top teams with just five games left in the regular season. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? They do get credit in overtime because that's listed as a sack. The Cowboys remained in second place in defensive DVOA, with the New England Patriots and Bills switching places in first and third place. NFL Week 5 - The Buffalo Bills remain on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings five weeks into the 2022 season.Philadelphia and Baltimore also stay in second and third place. by Team; by Week Teams with larger standard deviation of play success/value. But for the Packers' situation, specifically, a couple caveats: 1) I got the impression there was a (self-imposed) mandate to use Amari Rodgers as the returner in order to get immediate value (theoretically) out of a project of a 3rd round pick. It's all rendered moot now because they won the Sb, But I thought the decision to trade Matthew Stafford was a fascinating insight into perceived value. They are over 10 percentage points worse than any other 8-1 team in DVOA history. What are the exact ranges that makes a team boom or bust? How much negative credit does the Bills offense get? *New: It's not a paywall, except on Mondays! Historical Lookups. Consider that this team's dvoa is worse than the lowly disappointing Raiders. I was a bit disappointed. Parsons is so fast and powerful that he is going to get held and not get called. For example, let's compare Minnesota's rank in DVOA by down to EPA per play: That's weird, right? The second lesson you learn is you don't know what you think you know. WebFootball Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season. Follow Email Archive . NCAA Week 12 November 23, 3:25 pm ET NFL Week 10 - The Green Bay Packers have been in a state of disarray for most of the 2022 season.Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is on pace to post his second-worst passing DVOA since becoming a full-time starter. Geometric mean of 100% + DVOA (which you described) could work. Basically it looks like their offense is going to get better and the defense is going to get significantly worse if the turn over numbers regress to the mean at the same time. It's wild now that the perception has flipped and analytics love Allen's offense but the tape is concerning. But how much of that strong EPA on defense is caused by Josh Allen's aborted snap fumble on his own goal line and the Vikings recovering it for a touchdown? Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Whatever happened to good old American names like Dave or Jim?. Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.65 1.58 3 1.93 1 2.65 1 2.23 2 5.72 2 9.78 2 2 Alabama This is the 1st year Goff has looked like he can be better than his context. Disregarding the kneel down, the Vikings offense put up 16 points and nearly 300 yards of offense in their final 4 drives. If you recover, that's the very definition on luck, situational probabilities notwithstanding. The Eagles had five different drives of just three plays, not counting their final desperation play. Mike recently wrapped up a six-year run as the NFL Lead Columnist for Bleacher Report; his popular Monday Morning Digest feature will presumably be replaced by In reply to "but DVOA says the Bills by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. I think the harmonic mean might be more instructive in this case, which suggests that among the teams Aaron mentioned: 5. THE SHORT VERSION: DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. They rank 26th in DVOA allowed on running back targets while surrendering a league-high 8.6 running back targets per game. I think Stafford is better and by a non-trivial amount, but not enough to justify two first rounders. In reply to the Vikings have had by AFCNFCBowl. by Team; by Week by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. Thatll win you 12-14 games and maybe even a SB ring. 49ers 2, Saints 3, Falcons 8, Rams 22, 4. Most decent teams probably have a couple of games a year with such improbable & late game heroics to squeak out a victory, and the Vikings basically have a 7 game win streak based on it. If you look at the same thing for defense, you find a huge difference on first downs. "you could define boom-or-bust as, over 50% of plays are 1 standard deviation from the mean.". Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming. In reply to We seem headed for a repeat by theslothook. NFL Week 10 - The Buffalo Bills may have fallen to the Minnesota Vikings in the most exciting game of the year, but we still think they are the best team in the NFL.The Bills are back on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings despite the loss. Yes it is more valuable DVOA takes into account down, distance to go and filed position. Every incompletion is effectively a bust. Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . The last time we came out flat and stayed flat long enough to get boatraced was week 11 vs. the Colts last season. ints in the red zone since the bye, and two games we lost by 3 each. Yes. You say that the Vikings' defense gets zero credit for the Bills fumble in the endzone. Well, if your average play is X yards, you could define boom-or-bust as, over 50% of plays are 1 standard deviation from the mean. That still makes them one of the worst 8-1 teams ever, if not the absolute worst 8-1 team ever. Carroll was already named one of two All-Decade Coaches for the 2010s by the Pro Football Hall of Fame, having turned around a middling Seahawks franchise into one of the top 2 or 3 most successful teams since 2010. NCAA Week 12 November 23, 3:25 pm ET Oddly enough, the Bills have only "come out flat" on offense three times: LA, Baltimore, and KC, in which we had 10 points at the half each time. After starting the year with a league-best 41.1% offensive DVOA, the Ravens only have played one game with an offensive DVOA above 20% and two games with a DVOA above 10%. They have the most runs over 20 yards of all 32 units, and are averaging five yards per carry. In reply to Not that either team will by Joey-Harringto. Because the subsequent fumble essentially reversed that value- at least on the scoreboard. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. Founder of Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Creator of DVOA and DYAR Worcester, MA. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Because DVOA discounts fumbles and caps big plays, it discounts both plays. 14 offense, the No. Coach Mike McDaniel on the team remains on the West Coast as they prepare for Sunday nights battle against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Offense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. There's a part of me that almost wanted him to miss Sunday's game so we could see if the offensive staff can plan a winning strategy or if they're just counting on the Josh Allen "and a miracle occurs" offense now. 4th in QBR, 6th in DYAR. Treating these fumble recoveries as the Vikings recovering 3 50-50 balls, and 1 1% chance recovery is not good process. Because of that huge discrepancy in the number of plays run, the Post-Game Win Expectancy formula favors the Commanders, suggesting that we would expect Washington to win this game 58% of the time. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . I would argue that it is more interesting to optimize for future fumbles, not the specifics of any single fumble. 15 special teams (down from No. "Fizzle or bust" comes to mind. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? 2004 AFCE #NUM! In reply to Funky site stuff going down by Kaepernicus. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Since 2006 Of course not. And of course you have the Bills and Vikings game, where the booth review declined to review the Gabe Davis "catch". Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Sports Info Solutions marked Hurts with 3.7 air yards per attempt against the Cardinals, his lowest mark this year by more than a yard. I'm interested to know how much of a defensive adjustment there is here too, this is a Bills defense that coming into this game (with a small sample size) was allowing 9 points per game and just over 300 yards per game at home. The games we've lost we had 2nd half leads we couldn't protect. In reply to They are a very weird team by Kaepernicus. With the Ravens, it's worries about the offense. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. Cowboys 1, Eagles 2, Redskins 6, Cardinals 14, Giants 17, 3. Aaron Schatz. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Maybe he's functionally the same as Eli Manning, although I think Eli was a better player under pressure ( I don't mean in a clutch sense but literally while under pressure). In reply to The facemask was a reference by Aaron Brooks G. I'm pretty sure that's the largest DVOA-related number I've ever seen. I seem to recall that DVOA doesn't treat all fumbles the same, but perhaps that's just me misremembering. This is going to hurt you more than it hurts me. Revised as of 12/07/22, through Week 13. * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). It may just be worded wrong, but giving the Vikings no credit for that fumble also makes no sense, even if it was a clean snap, (which just for the sake of argument we'll say the Vikings defensive shifts and penetration had no effect on the fumbled snap), the Vikings D line clearly got a lot of penetration, and the play would've likely been a safety anyway which would've been a good play for the Vikings and should warrant at least some credit. The Vikings plummeted from 17th to 23rd with Sunday's loss. Pro Football Reference SRS, based solely on points scored and allowed plus schedule, has the Vikings tied for sixth. In reply to Well, if your average play by KnotMe. Keep up with the latest storylines, expert analysis, highlights, scores and more. Once you have enough statistical data over several years (or decades), then we can match up statistics to what we see and perhaps have a specific number be the threshold.. Note that our decision of which receiver is "number one" and which receiver is "number two" is somewhat subjective. I say that as somebody who was fine with the old regime getting fired. Wasnt it 2 picks and 2 fumbles? The Eagles were at 25.0% DVOA and the Commanders at 16.8% DVOA. On a more serious note, the Bills have in theory all the ingredients of a modern NFL team. Unfortunately, I expected FO fans to have passed the first two rules of fight club and some have not. Even in the by Will Allen. DVOA would have it as clear that the Vikings "should" go 0-4 on this BUF/DAL/NE/NYJ stretch, but I have trouble seeing them losing even two of them. 49ers 2, Rams 6, Saints 10, Falcons 11, 2. Sure, giving the Vikings credit for end zone touchdown recovery would improve the explanatory power of this particular game. Their 24.0% defensive rushing DVOA performance against the Chicago Bears saw the Patriots give up 82 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries by Justin Fields. Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Teams are ranked in order of general passing defense DVOA. They have horses on defense and perhaps the best pass offense in the league. Left tackle Jordan Mailata missed the entire game, center Jason Kelce went down halfway through, and guard Landon Dickerson only played about 20 minutes. 14 offense, the No. I could keep the original property while scaling the numbers down as much as I wanted. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. For any given total DVOA, balance is rewarded and imbalance. 6.85 vs 6.32 -- by virtue of being at the 1, the Bills had a negative expected EPA at the snap. KaVontae Turpin has produced a 52-yard punt return and 63 yard kickoff return. In reply to It's all rendered boot now by theslothook, "It's all rendered moot now because they won the Sb". Just a friendly FYI, a fundamentally incorrect approach cant be hand-waived away. by Team; by Week Vegas agrees, making Minnesota a home underdog to Dallas this week. Though I believe red zone plays get a bonus. However, that would favor divisions that had one superlative team in a year with less parity than 2022. Since last January, it's really been about what happens this coming January, and that may be how the McDermott/Allen years go. In reply to i agree the defence is by vikingflagship. Now, there are two ways to do this. Carroll was already named one of two All-Decade Coaches for the 2010s by the Pro Football Hall of Fame, having turned around a middling Seahawks franchise into one of the top 2 or 3 most successful teams since 2010. We'll see how things play out over the next few weeks, as I mentioned, the Vikes play DVOA's #4th, #9th and #12th ranked teams. Offense All EPA/Success Rate stats are via rbsdm.com The league doesn't care about questionable officiating at all. Buffalo outgained the Vikings on a per play basis, 6.75 to 6.18. The Vikings are literally going to cause heart attacks to their older fans. DVOA of defense against receivers does not include sacks or passes with no intended receiver listed. WebGeorgia remains on top of our college football ratings, with a Big Ten/SEC split in the top five. by Team; by Week Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Needless to say, this is the best duo in the league by a comfortable margin. I think he might be on the higher end and Jared Goff might be on the lower end but they both live inhabit the same neighborhood. Historical Lookups. This makes him seem barely affected by blatant holding. 2004 AFC East (7.75) Founder of Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Creator of DVOA and DYAR Worcester, MA. In reply to I agree with all of this by Spanosian Magn. DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with weighted DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. 10? Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. Stafford is 34. Almost everything the Eagles called was an RPO, a screen, or a one-on-one ball to A.J. But Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings has the Cardinals ranking only above the Houston Texans, making them the second-worst team in the league. In reply to They remind me a lot of the by takeleavebelieve. They do have a +2 interception margin (eight thrown, 10 taken away) but their outstanding +8 turnover margin is mostly the product of recovering 67% of fumbles (not including muffed kicks). How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. So in games Viking's fans have cared about, 21 of 24 have been one score games. Before Seattle he did the same thing at USC, creating one of the most dominant runs in college football history. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars are the No. 7 total isn't much (t-8th with 8 more teams), so they're above average but not some insane outlier like last year's Seahawks who had 15 plays of 40+ yards on just 954 plays (Vikings have 7 in 590). I think all that can be said of them is that they're high variance, with the 'top' being very high, and the 'valley' being about NFL average. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team; ESPN: Best Second-Year Players of 2022; ESPN: NFL's Deepest and Thinnest Rosters; DVOA DATABASE: Exclusive Access Historical Lookups. Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. Staff Writer pf plays are either under 2 yards(bust) or over Y yards(boom). And stop talking about my onus! The Cowboys remained in second place in defensive DVOA, with the New England Patriots and Bills switching places in first and He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. Gambling problem? The exact same play that gets you an 80 yard TD from the 20 only gets 30 from the other 30. The crazy thing about their defense is they are in the bottom 4 teams in the NFL when it comes to average time and plays per possession. Welcome to the club buddy. That division is not as impressive as the AFC East in DVOA, but the entire division is also at .500 or above. Shuffling around also moves the New England Patriots up a spot, which puts the entire AFC East into the DVOA top 12 at this point. Since the Packers moved on from star wideout Davante Adams, Rodgers has failed to get on the same page as his receivers. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. EPA per play at RBSDM.com doesn't list an overall rating but has the Vikings 12th on offense and 13th on defense. Use promo code. As for providing more specific context to each individual fumble, that's a fool's errand, IMHO. by Team; by Week Touchdown rate (DTD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown. The Miami Dolphins face the Los Angeles Chargers in a Sunday Night Football Week 14 contest. DVOA hates boom/bust teams. 1) I don't see a problem with that. Overall, I wonder if there's room for thinking about why this year's 8-1 Vikings team is lower rated than last year's 4-5 Vikings team (if memory serves.) We seem headed for a repeat of last year with Buffalo gagging away the much needed home field advantage. THE SHORT VERSION: DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Anyways, if they want to win a playoff game, their defense still needs to get bettter. 21 of the last 26 Vikings games have been 1 score games. That 2nd half of the 1st quarter, the 1st half of the 2nd quarter, and most of the 3rd quarter is just an offensive lull. Even acknowledging the Bills higher success rate, when you look at EPA, that didn't seem to matter, even disregarding turnovers, the Bills Offensive EPA per play was .219 compared to the Vikings .210, if you include turnovers, the Vikings averaged .06 EPA per play compared to the Bills -.07, even if you cap turnovers to an extent, the Vikings would've had a likely had a higher EPA per play. 1992 NFC East (8.0) Right. They have the most runs over 20 yards of all 32 units, and are averaging five yards per carry. Historical Lookups. First down rate (DFD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that earn at least one first down. In reply to What even is a boom or bust by takeleavebelieve. In reply to "Fumble Luck is fickle" by Jblades13. Nick Bosa has been getting held continuously since the second half of his rookie year. Micah is going to have to figure out how to beat holds and double teams just like the rest of the elite pass rushers in the NFL. RBSDM.com does not list EPA for special teams but ESPN FPI is split into offense, defense, and special teams. The Miami Dolphins were one of this week's big movers, climbing from 12th to seventh with a hefty 39-17 win over Cleveland. The Vikings have been outgained by their opponents on a per-play basis, 5.92 to 5.52. The players obviously don't like the terrible officiating, but I guess the players association is incapable of doing anything about it. Productive in the right circumstances, but can't really be trusted to be a long-term solution at quarterback. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. I am kind of glad that it has because it dispenses this view that special teams is all about coaching and if you just had the right coaching in place, special teams would be fixed. The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. NFL Week 10 - The Buffalo Bills may have fallen to the Minnesota Vikings in the most exciting game of the year, but we still think they are the best team in the NFL.The Bills are back on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings despite the loss. In reply to Justification Makes No Sense by Jblades13, "but DVOA says the Bills were significantly better than the Vikings. by Team; by Week Maybe even look like a proper HoF. I see their offense being a little better than what DVOA says, and see their defense as being a little worse. But how much is the elbow? For 3 of the 4 fumbles there were no Bills players with a realistic chance to recover. i agree the defence is improving. They rank 26th in DVOA allowed on running back targets while surrendering a league-high 8.6 running back targets per game. They're 25th in pass DVOA since Week 4, below such dominant aerial attacks as Chicago and Tennessee. What if we looked at the average DVOA instead of the average DVOA rank? In both cases it was to dalvin behind the LOS with nobody within five yards. DVOA Analysis. Would be to calculate 1+DVOA for each team in the division and multiply the results. by DVOA the Vikings have actually been a disappointment this year (they were projected to be a very good team in the FO almanac). The facemask was a reference to the Eagles game, where the 4th quarter turned on Goedert being facemasked to the ground and "fumbling." The onus would be on you to prove the normality of the sample before proceeding to use standard deviation or z-score. 22 last week), and the No. In reply to Bills Endzone Fumble by wludford. NFL Week 11 - The statistical stars of Week 11 were a pair of running backs who didn't do a ton of runningat least, not as running is defined in the NFL play-by-play.But Tony Pollard and Samaje Perine were so deadly as receiving threats that they carried their teams to victory anyway. by Team; by Week Will it sustain ? And that's actually kind of reasonable to an extent because Stafford, for all his faults, is much better than Flacco or Brad Johnson or certainly Trent dilfer. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Their 24.0% defensive rushing DVOA performance against the Chicago Bears saw the Patriots give up 82 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries by Justin Fields. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202211130buf.htm. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. DVOA ratings represent value from the point of view of the defense, not fantasy football players, and include items that have no impact on fantasy football (such as how many interceptions are caught on passes intended to certain receivers). A team that scores a long TD every play is the best team ever. Staff Writer Funky site stuff going down. For example, Four teams with 0% DVOA result in a weighted average of 0%, while a combination of two team at 50% DVOA and two at -50% DVOA comes to a weighted average of -13.4%. I think Minn has won bc of turnover advantage and they've have started on their own 31.4 vs 26 yd line for opps. It's very similar to LeBron/Shaq in the NBA getting less calls than they should because they do not demonstrate the proper reaction to draw the foul even though the impact/position of the offender is the same. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA by. It's interesting to observe that play wasn't the biggest delta-EPA play in the game -- Cook's TD was. Bills 1, Dolphins 7, Jets 9, Patriots 12, 4. Chubb has the third highest DVOA in the NFL, and Hunt is sitting 12th. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. The Eagles played a sloppy game like the Cowboys did, hence the reference to letting bad officiating impact a game. His numbers aren't bad, but he was in a very good offense (and team) and he made some really bad throws at times. Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. Part of that is their favoring towards two-high shells and blitzes, both of which can lead the quarterback to force the ball to the running back, but as the DVOA suggests, they're still subpar at stopping those targets Bisaccia did fairly well in Dallas. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Rams 5, 49ers 6, Seahawks 9, Cardinals 10, 5. I.e. Our special teams methodology puts them 25th! Even in the era of 40 year old qbs, he's nearly certain to not be as good as he was when younger. Team; Week; Stat Splits by. In reply to Is there a way to see 4th by vikingflagship. I have to wonder if Dabolls departure has anything to do with that. The Vikings defense should at least get some credit for recovering the fumble as well, even if they didn't cause it. Their 1st Q3 TD was in week 7. They are the 3rd best team in the league when it comes to creating turnovers. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Historical Lookups. College Football I don't understand the idea of wanting to cut the Vikings a break because their fumbles were safe. Bad losses to Marshall and Stanford knocked Notre Dame out of playoff discussion, but as Clemson learned, their defense gives them a chance against any contender in their path. Injury luck, fumble luck, and schedule luck are the most significant areas of superiority the current regime has shown, compared to the old, so far. EPA per play on defense puts the Vikings eighth on first down. If the mean gain is 4 yards and the standard deviation is only 1 yard, that doesn't feel like "boom or bust" at all. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. Did they fumble deliberately, then? DVOA Analysis. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. Cowboys 2, Eagles 6, Giants 8, Redskins 9, 2t. I expected him to be more reliable. Fumbles are chaotic plays and there is no plan and no preparation involved. WebSave 10% & Support Mike Tanier Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . They also have 124 additional yards on penalties. Stuff like that occasionally happens between mid-November and January, so who knows? Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Use promo code TANIER to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Mike Tanier. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. The issue right now is the gap between the top pass rushers and offensive tackles is so large that refs have literally just stopped calling everything against the best in the league. Like the exact specific criteria. The justification for having the Bills' single game DVOA so much higher than the Vikings for this game only makes sense if you don't think about it at all. 27 defense (down from No. They are the worst team in the league when it comes to turnovers on offense. Fumbles after a reception are another matter completely, with the defense recovering 60% of the time (same source). I see mean regression happening and barely budging their TO differential because of those insane splits. 5? Those fumbles are almost always recovered by the offense, and I give no credit to the defense on those plays because the defense has nothing to do with a bad exchange. Defense Fremeau Efficiency Index ratings (DFEI) represent the per-possession scoring advantage each defense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. I did a little bit of research into where the differences are between DVOA and these other methodologies. In my opinion there is very little that differentiates Goff and Stafford other than Stafford got lucky that Tartt dropped an easily interception and he played against a mediocre Bengals in SB vs Goff had to play against a good Patriots team. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. In reply to "It's all rendered moot now by Joey-Harringto. "I am not sure what everyone's opinion on Goff is, but I feel more confident that he's very much in that volatile tier 3 QB mix ". In reply to Another way to think about strong divisions by nat. We could look at the average of all four teams in DVOA.Or, we can look at the average of all four teams' DVOA ranks. Pollard finishes as the best player at his position in In fact, their DVOA rating moved up this week.. DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) takes every single play during the season and compares success to a league-average baseline based on situation and opponent. The difference of 6.8 to 6.1 yards per play seems huge, but ultimately it comes out to the Bills outgaining the Vikings by 5 yards for the game. 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