A team projected to go 7-9 could realistically end up anywhere between 3-13 and 11-5. New York Jets Should the Patriots, Steelers and Cowboys all expect to make the playoffs again? The quarterback position is a colossal question mark, which is enough to outweigh a defensive projection that gives the Texans a boost with the return of J.J. Watt. Miami Rk Team Rec FBS F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk FEI Rk SP+ Rk; 1: Georgia: 13-0: 12-0: 2.67: 1.69: 7: 2.40: 1: 1.51: 1: 36.7 Rust or rest? With bets coming in on the . Baltimore has brought in talent on defense in free agency, but the Ravens have lost a lot, as well, with the trade of Timmy Jernigan and the surprising retirement of Zachary Orr. Buffalo The 49ers defense seems like a lock for a top 5 season given the easier schedule. The Dallas Cowboys climb into second place in pre-MNF Week 11 DVOA, the Jets tumble from the top 10, and more. I can't see that happening again. Subscribe to the podcast by looking for the "Football Outsiders Podcast Network" on your favorite podcast app. If you're sick of seeing the Patriots at the top of the AFC year after year, I have some bad news for you: New England has a top-five projection in all three phases of the game. The Cardinals' offense will aim to surpass the Football Outsiders projections in 2021. How do the numbers stack up for each Mountain West team? But it's still more likely that the Bucs will just stay mediocre. (Rogelio V. Solis/AP) It shouldn't be hard to make Georgia vs. LSU predictions. Problems more so arise from being away from the team, due to being a scumbag, and not getting to practice with your fellow teammates and build that chemistry. Could say 2009 was a big help just by sitting but he still finished the season with an 8.15 ANY/A and a 93.7 passer rating. Thats going to be a pretty good team if it happens, better than people are expecting. Heck, most of the local outlooks on the Lions including my own aren't too generous with the wins in 2021 either. I guess the prediction is that continues. And even if he was, Julio Jones is not on this team. There is also serious top 3 upside if the pass rush is as good as it looks on paper. Editor-in-Chief There's a lot of young, developing talent for Tampa Bay, so I think there's a better chance of the Buccaneers taking a step forward than an average projection of 7-9 indicates. In the book, the Bills led the NFL with 10.2 average wins. 2021 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. 2. I feel like after several years of punching above their weight, the ground may finally fall out from underneath; which is sad because in spite of my bemoaning, I think the coaching staff has done quite well all things considered. Let's take a look at those teams, beginning with the four teams that have improved: And the five teams that declined significantly since the book: I know the reason Washington's huge projected drop is because they were all defense, no offense last year (and defense regresseshard) but holy cow that's the one team I can glance at and say "yeah, they'll probably be significantly better than that." Last year's Ravens were the most-injured team by Adjusted Games Lost that FO has tracked, going back to 2001. 3. . The Bills are projected in the top five for offense, defense, and special teams in these new projections, updated from the season forecasts in Football Outsiders Almanac 2022. . Kansas City* And all seemed right with the world(well, for me anyways). Not many comps for guy missing that much time without a major injury, and he was elite in 2020, but it's hard to know if that was his new level (defensible given his age) or a matt ryan year. Reading the book and seeing who is in the secondary, I cant fathom Pitt ending the season with a top five defense let alone number one. The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles have overtaken the Buffalo Bills at the top of the DVOA rankings. NFL Week 13 - Welcome to the Football Outsiders Coach Rankings show for NFL Week 13!Ian O'Connor and Vince Verhei are to review the most impactful games and coaching decisions from the past weekend of football. Every team that has ever hired Phillips as a head coach or defensive coordinator saw its defensive DVOA improve, including the Broncos, who went from fourth in the league in 2014 to one of the greatest defenses ever in 2015. Editor's Picks. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? The Rams have been mired in a six-game losing streak. Welcome to the Football Outsiders Coach Rankings show for NFL Week 13! Football Outsiders will be streamingLIVEevery weekday at during the NFL season. On the other hand, the 49ers have had seesawing health the last six years or so, and this year is scheduled to be a downside year. Obviously, the NFL is going to have teams that are 11-6 or better, and it is going to have teams that are 6-11 or worse. Seattle improves because of Geno Smith replacing Drew Lock as the starting quarterback. At least one of the AFC South teams will climb up and be better than this. In Va. They should have a top-10 offense again, and a full year with Mario Edwards Jr. across from Khalil Mack should improve the pass rush. 11. 2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+. Obviously on a small sample size butfeels like rust is just an excuse fans use when they don't have off 5/6 days (we know everyone hates Thursday games because it's not enough rustI mean rest). In reply to Off topic, I know, but where by Calipanther. explaining what we like about Philadelphia in great detail. ), then again, we still have Seattle. They didn't lose any starter or even backup (until preseason cuts) from last year, they added two vets in Ingram and Flowers and they have two young guys on the upswing in Holland and Phillips. He writes regularly for ESPN.com and ESPN the Magazine, and has done custom research for a number of NFL teams. I'm surprised it's so down on Indy. Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (9.0 mean wins; SOS: 15) The return of Earl Thomas should help the Seattle defense rebound from its December implosion, and that makes the Seahawks the favorites in the NFC, once again. Off topic, I know, but where is Loser League? It's still going to be Scrambly in tone and concept; itisme running the dang thing, after all. On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the . Then all the wierd coaching staff fluctuations with the only real counter being "Darth Hoodie knows what he's doing" and.you get a team that's hard to figure out. I'm sorry, but yeah, we're not going to be able to do the Loser League this year. For a team that went 8-9 in 2021 and played in a. I'm really surprised that the Ravens are ranked at 2. And nobody knows what to make of Mac Jones. Washington Redskins: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 2). Scramble isn't returning this year, but I'm writing a column for Thursdays which will carry over much of the general Scramblyness (including things like the KCW team and the Joe Thomas draft and the various yearly staples). Dallas declined on offense because of the injury to Tyron Smith. 4. 4. Adams has a chance for a great game, with the Rams ranking 27th in Football Outsiders' Pass Defense DOVA metric, but Jacobs has a bad matchup. The Titans ranked 15th in our DVOA ratings last season, best in the AFC South, and they've made some strong free-agent additions on defense. Yet still ended up AP OROTY-3. In reply to Last year's Ravens were the by dmb. Well, there are 7 worse by projected wins, which seems reasonable. Rams vs. Creator of DVOA andDYAR Houston might have won the division last season, but the Texans ranked a dismal 29th in our DVOA ratings. This year's simulation was even more conservative than usual, both in terms of DVOA and wins. In reply to I was initially stunned that by theslothook. Subscribe Now Get all the features and proprietary analytics you can't get anywhere else. The point of this for Bills fans is to remember the following: It may feel like you have to win NOW. AFC South's 2nd best DVOA team, and that only by tenths of a win point, is getting the best odds on the whole NFL division-winning board! (Denver was going to be a projected playoff team, but the Raiders have passed them slightly in this new simulation.) Are you *sure* you put the numbers in right? San Francisco is the opposite of the New York Jets, where the decline in the offensive projection is due to offensive line changes and you can quibble with that if you would like. Indianapolis has mustered 16 and 17 points vs. quality defenses in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia the past two games. The Niners forecast is the one that surprises me. AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. And since the Football Outsiders database now goes back to 1989, I thought it would be worthwhile to test the predictive power of Football Outsiders' ratings. 10. The projection here seems reasonable but it's a weird one. As we say every year: "A few of them will look strange to you. September 10, 2021 7:15 am ET. On a lighter note, if you combined the projected 10th and 11th teams, you have a team that would put a mincin on anyone. Kirk Cousins probably is the player in the NFL who forces the biggest disagreements between stats people and film people, but the dude is consistently like the 10th best quarterback in the league, statistically. You add it all up and the Colts have a roster destined to conquer the might middle of the NFL. For a decade, Football Outsiders has been using advanced analytics to measure and predict team performance. I suppose it might include a subjective appreciation of coaching, but it seems incredibly difficult to project such a thing correctly. In reply to Special Teams by Aaron Schatz. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. We had him as a perfectly average passer and also the best running QB in the league. Outsiders is currently favored at -159 moneyline odds on the OddsJam Perfect Line, which takes odds from the sharpest sportsbook in the world.. The bottom dozen teams in the league by DVOA projection consist of the entire AFC South and eight NFC teams. Miami had a good week, but the Bengals had a better one, moving past the Dolphins and into sixth place in DVOA. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Roundtable: Who has been the top waiver wire pickup so far this season? The Tigers scored 34 points per game behind a good offensive line (14th in Football Outsiders' Line Yards metric), an excellent running game (25th in Rush EPA per play), and improved play from . Gannon missed all of 1994 and almost all of 1995. May be, and for the good of the site I'm hoping there is, too. Kinlaw is probably a downgrade vs. DJ Jones against the run and an upgrade against the pass. Always interested to hear which bits and pieces people want to continue, so I can act accordingly! Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. I mentioned it before, different position but still a multi time PB offensive player traded to a different team in conference this century but not exactly due to injury, is Trent Williams. The schedule strength ratings also account for the six games where playing Cleveland is a much harder game from Week 13 to Week 18 (Houston, New Orleans, Washington, and the three AFC North rivals). Meanwhile, the Colts continue to experiment with just how much a bad defense can fritter away the prime years of a good quarterback. At that point, I wanted to abandon being a colts fan. A way-too-early look at the USMNT depth chart for 2026 World Cup, Man City's Castellanos is settling nicely in WSL, just in time for Man United's visit. I agree the Colts offense seems particularly low. Gain access to premium articles like Derrik Klassen's full game-by-game preview with detailed film and data breakdowns. The defensive projection I'd like to hear more about is Miami's. Washington's third-down defense last year was particularly atrocious and although I'm somewhat worried by the fact that this continued throughout the preseason, it's at least typically an area that would particularly be expected to drive reversion toward the mean. The Chargers, of course, were the opposite in terms of luck, and they hope a new coaching staff will help prevent so many close losses and blown fourth-quarter leads. What is that defensive projection? 2021 NFL Draft: Toney's Football Outsiders projection isn't ideal GatorSports.com Schedule Teams SEC Alabama Arkansas Auburn Georgia LSU Tennessee Texas A&M ACC Clemson UNC Big Ten Iowa Michigan. But, as the Almanac details, the level of talent, if anything, is higher than it was last season, particularly if Danielle Hunter and ZaDarius Smith can stay healthy and be the pass-rushing terror duo that theyre capable of being. Purdue's offensive line is below average, ranking 98th in Football Outsiders' Line Yards metric. Dallas Cowboys. Five Good Questions with Football Outsiders: Projections for the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Vikings activate Cameron Dantzler, place Jonathan Bullard on IR. Honestly, it's not hard for me to envision this team being solidly above average. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. They arn't really a threat to win the division, so that makes it less interesting. A projection of ~16% for the best team seems low to me. The Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football hit the board at 45.5 points on Sunday night and quickly shortened to as low as 43 with one-sided play on . Offensive projections also incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback done independent of the team. Per Football Outsiders, the Cowboys have the second-most estimated wins in the NFL, at 10.2. Sorry to hear it's no longer feasible, but thanks for the great run! I can totally see that offensive projection being right due to the new QB and IOL. 2020 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. 3) The short answer is: the Eagles added the NFL's best YAC receiver over the last few years in A.J. Find out what gives in our Week 12 DVOA preview. Yes, Watson is better than Brissett, but - keeping to a strictly football perspective - it will have been almost 2 full seasons since Watson has seen non preseason action. Raiders Predictions. I could easily see a 9-8 division win happening again for either Philly or Washington. The 2008 NFC West would have pulled that stunt off, if it wasn't for those meddling kids, the 0-16 Detroit Lions. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? 11. Is this a first where projections have an entire division as the worst 4 in their conference, it seems incredibly implausible, In reply to AFCS terribleness by HitchikersPie. (You can find last year's final ratings here.) In reply to Gannon started 12, 11, and by Aaron Brooks G. For if gaining Wilson is not seen as an upgrade, then why is losing him such a catastrophic loss? Cunningham missed all of 1996 and most of 1997. Their run really has been odd to say the least. 1 plus Jets on the rise, September vs. October performance, and great offensive debacles of DVOA history. .this years projections give the Vikings a nearly 60% chance of being a playoff team in 2022 (59.7%, to be precise). The site is run by a staff of regular writers, who produce a series of weekly columns using both the site's in-house statistics and their personal analyses of NFL games. Last Big Home Game of the Season for the Lions, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Final injury reports for both teams, Vikings at Lions - Underdog?! Conversely, Denver has a ton of talent as Tanier even mentions in his chapter. Editor-in-Chief I've been saying on various promotional podcast appearances that the offensive line injuries in Tampa Bay didn't drop the Buccaneers below the Kansas City Chiefs in our offensive projections but once I did a final update on the offensive line variables, guess what? New Orleans Basically, they had whole position groups consisting of third-stringers or street FAs, plus the typical assortment of various injuries throughout the roster. On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the Baltimore Ravens trend of late-game collapse, and our favorite coaching matchups of Week 13.Don't forget to subscribe to our YouTube to see and stay up to date on all of the FO video and stream content! New York Jets: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 25). Thanks to some personnel movement in the preseason, the entire rest of the AFC comes out ahead of the best team of the AFC South (Indianapolis). Houston Texans: 6-10 (6.1 mean wins; SOS: 10). Last year, it stood out because of its optimism regarding the Cardinals, projecting the team to win 8.1 games when most others expected less. Football Outsiders has released their early 2016 AFC projections (insider required), and they may have the Ravens finishing in third place, but they do have them returning to the playoffs.. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2021, Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. And although it only counts for expected wins and not DVOA, playing a last-place schedule should also benefit the Ravens. The Bills are projected in the top five for offense, defense, and special teams in these new projections, updated from the season forecasts in Football Outsiders Almanac 2022. "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com 16. Although many scouts underrated Taylor, BackCAST -- Football Outsiders' system for projecting running backs -- identified Taylor as a potential star. He wrote the chapter on the Vikings for this years Almanac, so he took the time to answer the five queries I posed for this years squad. Factors include major offseason personnel changes, coaching experience, recent draft history, age and combined tenure on the offensive line, and certain players returning from injury (or, in the case of these updates, certain players getting injured in the preseason). 7. . NE had such a wacky offseason (mostly bad it looks like), they are really hard to project. Jeff Risdon. It says that in the article, right? ), (Yes, they got steamrolled by the Bills, but they still had a reasonable WDVOA after that.). 2022 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. I think the offense will certainly have a much different look with Kevin OConnell at the switch than weve seen over the past few years, thats for sure. Bills vs Patriots Over/Under analysis. For a team that went 8-9 in 2021 and played in a lot of one-score games, that seems like a pretty significant jump. 9.8% DVOA last year, -5.6% this year, most of the difference seems to be on offence. Get FO+ Already a subscriber? New York Giants 13. Baltimore Ravens: 8-8 (7.8 mean wins; SOS: 19) . Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. Minnesota Vikings News and Links, 10-11 December 2022, The Daily Norsemans Minnesota Vikings Twitter List, The Complete Minnesota Vikings Draft Pick Database. Dick Vitale: Remembering Jim Valvano today, this week and every day after, V Week 2022: Donate now to support the V Foundation and fight cancer, NFL Power Rankings: Patriots, Falcons and Packers lead post-free-agency edition, Founder and Editor-in-chief of Footballoutsiders.com. Gannon was a backup then. 10. We also expect Cincinnati to bounce back on both sides of the ball, and the Bengals get eight home games again after losing one to London in 2016. 3. New Orleans got rid of its best wide receiver in Brandin Cooks. The only part of that defense that is obviously worse is at safety with Ward out 4 games and Hufanga replacing Tartt. Obviously nobody's picking up any Bills or Rams, but I thought it'd be out by now. Denver Broncos: 6-10 (6.0 mean wins; SOS: 6). Los Angeles Chargers: 8-8 (7.9 mean wins; SOS: 14) The Rams . Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. The Chiefs were 6-2 in regular-season games decided by less than a touchdown, and they led the NFL by ending 16.7 percent of opposing drives with a takeaway. Watson will play six games this year and Cleveland's offensive DVOA projection is 11% higher with Watson at quarterback than Jacoby Brissett. We're. Numbers will change over the next few months because of personnel moves, including the NFL draft. There are good signs for Atlanta's late-season defensive improvement to continue in 2017 but not enough to counter the likely offensive decline. I do think some sort of loser content at the end of the year would be cool. The Colts get their due when we put up the subjective projections tomorrow. Football Outsiders released its DVOA projections for 2020 and the advanced analytics site didn't rank the Denver Broncos high, though its ranking doesn't tell the whole story. Houston Bills vs. Patriots predictions Patriots +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook Sharp money has continuously hit this line since the opener, as the Patriots have dropped from 5.5-point underdogs to 3.5 . Indy looked like by far the best team(although it had some rather worrying regular season hiccups). I know, it looks very strange for us to have no team projected with 11 wins. Preseason football, but real football nonetheless. I tend to think that this probably overrates New England's decline though, because pretty much moreso than any other team they're basically always near the top of the league in interceptions. And maybe Ryan is better than he was in Atlanta, but he's not the guy he was several years before the decline. Some of it is having a new quarterback. With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2016 season. Everyone forgot Sewell and Jamarr skipped a year too not they look like studs. Their likelihood of losing someone significant due to felony went down. Maybe, maybe not. Indianapolis They could be good or horrible, but I think they're even more dependent on Prescott than Buffalo is on Allen. They lose a bunch of guys or something? 8. When they made that switch last year the 49ers went from below average on run defense to the clear best unit in the NFL. When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2017. Kinda curious how you would even make a projection for Watson. Miami moves up five spots, Buffalo is back to No. There are going to be at least a couple of familiar faces missing from the Minnesota defense this season. Would personally really enjoy a more limited loser league if it was still possible, the overall tone of scramble makes very enjoyable reading, In reply to Bits and pieces by HitchikersPie. 1. I remember in 2005, the Colts finally splurged in free agency to bring in Corey Simon. Not really applicable. However, I do want to express appreciation for the tradition it's been; over the years, I've thoroughly enjoyed some of the inspired team names, as well as the content it's generated in Scramble. So anything from from 700 to 1300 DYAR (then scale that to six games) is defensible. 1) to the easiest (New England). (halfway IIRC), In reply to NE had such a wacky by KnotMe. Football Outsiders takes a look at which second-year quarterback could improve the most in 2020. video Previewing Bills' 2022 floor and ceiling scenarios See what changes the Buffalo Bills made. What are the odds that this unit is still bottom 3 against deep balls? That was enough to drop them into a projected last place in a very close AFC South where we have every team with an average projection below .500. When Aaron Rodgers is on his game, the recipe for the Packers is simple: good team if the defense is bad, great team if the defense is good. The Ravens' season-long DVOA was-2.7% (19th), while the Bengals' was -0.1% (17th). Some of that is the fact that Smith has a higher "team-free quarterback projection" and part of it is that teams with poor projected quarterbacks do even worse if those quarterbacks are new to the team. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season, Support Football Outsiders' independent media. 1 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders . Hard to think going from Wentz to Matt Ryan is THAT big a downgrade. The New York Jets improve because of changes on the offensive line, which may seem counterintuitive because Mechi Becton got hurt and was lost for the year. San Francisco. Is that possibly why the win totals are all bunched up? Offensive projections also incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback done independent of the team. Ebukam year 2/rookie Jackson seem like an upgrade over Arden Key/corpse of Dee Ford. Brown; the defense added a pair of exciting rookies in Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean, plus quality veterans in Haason Reddick and James Bradberry; and they have the easiest projected schedule in the league. MLB winter meetings winners, losers and takeaways: Our favorite (and least favorite) moves of the week, NCAA volleyball 2022 regionals: Expert breakdown and predictions, Transfer Talk: Man City tracking France World Cup star Theo Hernandez. Not only is that tough to square when losing someone as sharp as Zimmer, but also when considering first-year defensive coordinators, including veterans of the job, tend to not elevate their unit in the first season. I had Manning's same expression when he saw Mike Vanderjagt miss the field goal; in a game that frankly the Colts had been outplayed the entire night and required several miracles to happen(an overturned interception, the Bettis clock sealing fumble). When it comes to clubs like the L.A. Rams, a Thursday night date is downright banana balls. It may seem like our simulation predicts half the league to be near .500, but we know that won't happen. Gannon started 12, 11, and 12 games prior to 1993. 4. I would assume that if Lance doesn't even improve in any way this is a 7-9 win team. Now, Arizona is fourth but the other seven out of the top eight schedules in the league belong to AFC teams. 2. Use promo code WRITERS to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip the team of writers. 1. The personnel change variables for skill position players are based on DYAR and Tim Patrick had. You should check it out but if not, I've re-posted the highlights. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Sigh. After that, we account for general regression trends and incorporate a number of other variables that measure everything from turnover ratios to personnel and coaching changes on both sides of the ball. Mercifully, I didn't have to wait long to savor the opposite feeling. Eleven of the 12 teams that would make the playoffs based on mean projections are teams that made the playoffs in one of the past two seasons. The Chiefs are scoring just under 30 points and are also number one in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. But the mean of the range of possibilities has those four teams lower than the rest of the conference. We know its a little weird how much our computer projection loves the Vikings after two losing seasons. A lot of that with the Ravens is having the No. 2. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. I want to thank Derrik Klassen and Aaron Schatz for taking the time to answer my questions about the 2022 Vikings and the projections that Football Outsiders has for them for the upcoming season. A composite of popular computer formula rankings had Alabama third and TCU eighth. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. And similarly, the defense lacks the premium pass rusher or ace corner. This has become something of a trend, and may represent draft strategy backfiring. They have been top 10 for 3 straight years with terrible injury luck and a change in DC. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Buffalo Bills Clear Favorites in 2022 DVOA Projections, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. Overall, the average of the range of projections comes out with a top-10 offense and special teams combined with an average defense and an easy schedule (25th). Nevertheless, there will be some new blood in contention and, in particular, a new city. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Some things haven't changed: In our first season forecast, no team in the AFC South came out with a winning record. Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (9.5 mean wins; SOS: 1) Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 13-0 12-0 1.51 1.73 4 1.46 1 2.46 1 1.48 19 4.58 9 8.48 6 2 Offense first: Minnesotas offense projects to be a step up from what they were a year ago. Yes, we have the entire AFC West projected with more mean wins than the entire AFC South, but it is even worse in DVOA. With Watson, we project the Browns as a top-five offense. 5. Hell, in 32 years of Fouts, Brees, and Rivers, SD never made a SB with them. So has Jacksonville, and the Jaguars project to have a top-10 defense, but there's no reason to expect the offense to get any better. The Steelers have exceptional offensive line continuity, as all five starting linemen have been in Pittsburgh for at least four seasons. Our system may expect ZaDarius Smith and a healthy Danielle Hunter to be bigger additions than they really will be. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. As somebody who never participated (partly due to never actually signing up for an account until the playoffs last year), I totally understand why it's more work than justified by the response, but I always loved the loser/KCW portions of the weekly columns and would hate to see it disappear entirely. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. We've tweaked the results slightly to get a more realistic spread of win-loss records, but nonetheless, the numbers published below don't mean that we expect the 2017 season to end with no team below 5-11. Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings for the past three seasons, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2014 or 2015. Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. The Chiefs slide as a result of their bungle in the jungle, the Cowboys slip past the Eagles in the night, and much more. Baltimore is the No. I know that Wentz's reputation is in the toilet, But his season-long metrics were far better than heineke's and much better than his current reputation suggests. I think Michael Vick is a good close comparison. Its not devoid of talent. "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com Frankly, I never imagined Vrable as the head coach guiding the Titans to this much success to begin with. Can the Vikings prove Vegas wrong & clinch? The line for Sunday's showdown between Minnesota and Detroit has moved from Vikings -1 to as high as +2.5 since open. Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (9.8 mean wins; SOS: 12) Tim Patrick has been really good the last couple years! Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? I'm really interested to see how the Patriots defense does this year, though: letting Jackson go still seems like one of the biggest mistakes New England's made inyears. Phillips' scheme will likely have a similar effect in Los Angeles, where the defense was already loaded with talent in the front seven. There is no way this year's CB room is worse. Losing Eberflus could be a huge; especially since they went with Gus Bradley at defensive coordinator. Come January, that same Cousins-led offense will probably fall a little short the way it always has, but at least the Vikings will be playing watchable, even exciting, offense again. The Jets already have very good defensive and special teams projections; the former is based on all the new talent and talent returning from injury (Carl Lawson, Lamarcus Joyner) and is discussed further in. Tampa Bay declined on offense, as noted above, because of the injuries to Ryan Jensen and Aaron Stinnie. Power Rankings Power Rankings; Early 2017 NFL projections: NFC East repeat in Big D? And their schedule comes out easier than the other NFC West teams. In reply to I'm surprised it's so down by KnotMe. NFL Underdogs: NFL Picks, and Predictions Week 14. Perhaps the projections are off, and Qbase has its revenge on Allen. Outsiders: Early 2016 NFC projections The underdog, Liquid, is currently priced at +131 moneyline odds. There's an offensive line variable based on age and experience on the offensive line, so going from Becton to Duane Brown is a big change. Raiders? They only got to three conference games. And he was a PBer right away, along with some All Pro votes. 12. The one that does not make sense is the drop on the defense rating. a new full playoff odds report simulation, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Moseley/C.Ward/Womack will be a big upgrade over last year's starters. Between going to a new coach and system I would expect some difficulties but I can't think of a good comp. I think everyone at this point knows when a rookie QB plays New England it's gonna be pick central. Washington will have to weather the loss of two starting receivers and an offensive coordinator, but the Redskins are still more likely to be an average team than a bad one. 1 special teams projection. Slight improvements along the offensive line on top of whatever offensive flare OConnell may bring should be enough to get the Vikings jostling for a top-10 ranking again. 13th? The Broncos already defied historical NFL trends by putting up a second straight season of otherworldly pass defense, and the odds they can do it three straight seasons are even longer. Be sure totune in live throughout the offseason on YouTube to join the conversation! (With all due respect to their distinguished careers. And the Vikings had an above-average defensive DVOA last year on every down/play split except for first-down passes. Aaron Schatz in DVOA Analysis So, whether you agree with their projections or not, the folks at Football Outsiders do put in the work. BAL being back and some teams making the playoffs that didn't last year(MIN,NO) (The Raiders taking the last playoff spot from NE is narratively convenient). (One other change I made from the book simulation: Kansas City has a higher special teams projection here based on the fact that the Chiefs, like Baltimore and New England, have been somewhat consistent on special teams ranking in the top five for seven of the last nine years since Dave Toub took over as special teams coordinator.). But the difference is, you have Josh Allen. Detroit Indeed. 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